It’s been over a week since I’ve evaluated my Hope/Pessimism Index on Barack Obama’s chances of winning the White House. So I thought it would be a good time to update.
I have to say that I’m feeling pretty optimistic, putting my H/P I at about 70/30. Although as soon as I say that I worry that I’m in danger of being too optimistic. I wouldn’t be a GenXer if I wasn’t worried about being too optimistic, now would I. The danger here, as mine Generation eyes see it, is that being overly optimistic can lead to complacency. You let your guard down and that’s when you get sucker punched and the next thing you know John McCain is sitting his wrinkly old ass down behind the desk in the Oval Office. Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!
Still, it is hard not to feel good about Obama’s chances. Most polls have him leading, although it is still a close race and no doubt will be to the end. And, Hilary finally resurfaced, appearing with Obama, in Unity, NH (way to push the point people), to reassert her support for the Democratic Nominee.
Of course, there is always the wild card chance of a terrorist attack tipping peoples’ favor due to fear back toward McCain. At least that is the way Charles Black, a McCain advisor, sees it. But Frank Rich, in the New York Times, doesn’t think that ultimately such Rovian scare tactics will pan out for Mr. McCain. Let’s hope not.
So let me back up a bit and recalibrate my H/P Index to something a bit more cautious, say, 67/33. Yeah. That’s should do it.