Obama is doing well. But is he doing well enough?
I just spoke with a colleague who was fretting over a conversation she oveheard by another Obama suppoter, who claimed that he can not win because of racism. I responded by saying that such talk really bugs me too but at the same time I think a little pessimism is healthy. Why? It keeps people becoming overconfident. If Obama seems like a “shoe in,” which he so clearly is not some people will not vote. And we don’t want that.
Donklephant makes the same argument, citing polls that have Obama up by 5 points instead of 10 or more, as dailykos and others are claiming. Donklephant is not being a doomsayer, but he does argue that the Bradley effect cannot be ignored. And he is right. It can’t. Slacking off, even a little, could lose Obama the race. Take that from a life-long slacker.
Important to note: there is also the cell-phone only user factor in polling, which I have blogged about previously. Cell-phone only users tend to be younger and skew for Obama. It is reasonable to assume that these voters may cancel out the Bradley effect voters. But of course, nothing is certain. Yet another reason to maintain focuse and committment.