Don’t get cocky, kid!

Obama is doing well. But is he doing well enough?

I just spoke with a colleague who was fretting over a conversation she oveheard by another Obama suppoter, who claimed that he can not win because of racism. I responded by saying that such talk really bugs me too but at the same time I think a little pessimism is healthy. Why? It keeps people becoming overconfident. If Obama seems like a “shoe in,” which he so clearly is not some people will not vote. And we don’t want that.

Donklephant makes the same argument, citing polls that have Obama up by 5 points instead of 10 or more, as dailykos and others are claiming. Donklephant is not being a doomsayer, but he does argue that the Bradley effect cannot be ignored. And he is right. It can’t. Slacking off, even a little, could lose Obama the race. Take that from a life-long slacker.

Important to note: there is also the cell-phone only user factor in polling, which I have blogged about previously. Cell-phone only users tend to be younger and skew for Obama. It is reasonable to assume that these voters may cancel out the Bradley effect voters. But of course, nothing is certain. Yet another reason to maintain focuse and committment.


4 responses to “Don’t get cocky, kid!

  1. completely unrelated – but i had to SOUND OFF!! off my blog. Had an interview today with the BIGGEST JERK of a BABY BOOMER. Been interviewing a few for my Gen X project — oh, geez!!!!I will have a lot to say after January. PIGS! Now, I need to copy and paste this and put it on Old Man Neill and Latchkey Man’s sites.

  2. I’m actually a bit worried about this, I’m glad you mentioned it. I hope hope hope the following:

    1. He doesn’t relax and let down his guard – he must be exhausted. They have been working towards this for what, two years now?

    2. That Goofy McDipshit and his Stepford Vice President Wanna Be continue to dig themselves deeper into the pile of shit they keep trying to fling on other people.

    3. That the campaign advisor for Obama appears on the Today show every morning and mentions how McJackass “lurches” around. He totally lurches.

  3. You’re right. McCain does lurch. He’s sort of like a pint-sized Frankenstien, the way he walks. He’s like the mini-me Frankenstien. Like he was the test run before the real deal.

    I have faith that Obama will not relax. The danger is that voters me relax, beliving that with such a “big lead” they don’t really need to vote. Still, I’m confident that people are too serious about changing things to do that in mass numbers.

  4. I don’t envy you, Jen. Having to interview Boomers of that sort. I don’t think I’d have the stomach for it, quite frankly.

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